Dota 2 The International 2018 Qualifiers Data Analysis
To begin with, the result of these TI 2018 qualifiers simply did not represent the highest tier of competitive DOTA with the lack of existence of top 8 teams in DPC. In other words, some teams might not be facing off tough opponents but are qualified in the end. This may give a huge variation in the results when comparing to the Majors. However, we believe that the meta shift in the pro scene is still worth mentioning. We will also cross-refer to the 7.18 patch which is released shortly after the qualifiers.
Overview
Among the 245 games, 112 out of 115 heroes are being picked, in which only 3 heroes, Necrophos, Riki, and Sniper, is totally untouched-neither picked nor banned. Although teams being more likely to try out strategies might be one of the factors, it undoubtedly showed us that DOTA is full of possibilities and that the direction of balance seems to be on the right track.
Most Picked Heroes
When we compare the reliability of heroes, its win rate is probably the most important factor. The hero is considered very reliable if its win rate is above 55%. This might be why Warlock, Witch Doctor, Clockwerk, Mirana and Phantom Lancer are being nerfed in 7.18 patch. For instance, the mana cost of Warlock and Witch Doctor’s healing skills is drastically increased, such that their sustaining power during laning phase will become more balanced.
7.18
Warlock: Shadow Word mana cost increased from 90/110/130/150 to 120/130/140/150
Warlock: Shadow Word cast range reduced from 525/600/675/750 to 450/550/650/750
Witch Doctor: Voodoo Restoration activation cost increased from 20/30/40/50 to 35/40/45/50
Clockwerk has received another nerf on its base damage two times in a row, but it is rather minor, as the reason of picking Clockwerk is the global vision it can provide and the initiation from Hookshot.
7.17
Clockwerk: Base damage reduced by 4.
7.18
Clockwerk: Power Cogs burn/damage reduced from 80/120/160/200 to 50/100/150/200
Mirana gets a minor reduction on its right-click damage too, but what hits hard is the nerf of Maelstrom, a must-go item on a core build Mirana. This will also affect Windranger and Ember Spirit indirectly.
7.18
Mirana: Level 10 Talent reduced from +20 Damage to +15
Mirana: Level 25 Talent reduced from -75s Moonlight Shadow Cooldown to -70s
Maelstrom: Chain Lightning damage reduced from 170 to 160
Phantom Lancer has his Base Strength reduced by 3, making him easier to be shut down when laning. Having a strong nuke and a escape capability, he currently too strong as a hard carry early on.
7.18
Phantom Lancer: Base Strength reduced from 22 to 19
Most Banned Heroes
After a series of nerfs, Io seems went back to a lower win rate tier but it is still the most banned hero. 7.18 hit him hard, removing the long range, undisruptable escape provided by Relocate.
Since then, Io’s win rate in divine ranked pub games has already been dropped, even lower than Tiny. Time will tell if this is an over-nerf.
7.18
Relocate now has channel time instead of a cast delay
However Io is not the only victim of being overly nerfed, Chen and Lycan’s power have been changed even more.
And this is exactly why Chen has got heavy nerfed on its dominating/saving ability. The huge increase of cooldown in the early levels killed the ‘triple Mud Golem’ strategy at the laning phase. And the increase on the delay of sending back allies hits as hard as the Io Relocate changes, timing a 6 seconds save is now nearly impossible. The cast range reduction, also hinders its saving capability, Chen players may now be needed to buy Aether Lens as a core item.
7.18
Chen: Holy Persuasion cast range reduced from 900 to 600
Chen: Holy Persuasion send back delay rescaled from 6/5/4/3 to 6
Chen: Holy Persuasion cooldown increased from 10 to 32/24/18/10
Lycan also received a heavy nerf on his early game, the most significant part is the armour reduction, having only 0.56 armour at level 1 now, this may prevent him from being a solo-offlaner, and needed a support to assist him.
7.18
Lycan: Base armour reduced by 2
Lycan: Base damage reduced by 3
Most Contested Heroes
In this list, we are focusing Night Stalker and Bloodseeker.
One of the most controversial changes in 7.18 is the nerf of Night Stalker, he is already not a highly banned hero, and his win rate is now extremely low. Therefore, we think that a further nerf to limit his daytime capability is not needed.
7.18
Nightstalker: Void now deals half damage during day time
Nightstalker: Base movement speed reduced from 290 to 285
On the other hand, after a boom of popularity, teams have found ways to counter Bloodseeker, causing his win rate dropped dramatically During the group stages, most of the Bloodseeker bans are to protect mobility heroes that are countered by Bloodseeker. Thus, the Bloodseeker nerf is also not necessary.
7.18
Level 10 Talent reduced from +8 Armour to +6
Level 15 Talent reduced from +300 Health to +275
Highest Win Rate Heroes (pick ≥5 )
This is usually the list of OP heroes in the next version.
After numerous buffs in several patches, Abaddon has back to a good spot, and support Abaddon now became viable on the hands of OG. With the buff on its movement speed, he is now coming back to the pro scene and can fit in multiple roles.
7.18
Abaddon: Base movement speed increased from 305 to 310
Enigma is another highly benefited hero. Being heavily buffed in 7.17 and 7.18, teams are encouraged to perform awesome Blackhole in TI (prepare for shouts from Tobiwan ❤️) . With the buff on the Eidolon, Enigma now becomes a strong offlaner. Teams have discovered that with his presence and the possibilities of team fights via Blackhole, blink dagger initiation is no longer necessary. He can now build Mekansm/Pipe and become tanky.
7.17
Enigma: Demonic Conversion mana cost reduced from 170 to 140/150/160/170.
Enigma: Eidolon HP regen increased from 0.25 to 4.
7.18
Enigma: Midnight Pulse damage increased from 3/3.75/4.5/5.25% to 3.75/4. 25/4.75/5.2 5%
Enigma: Midnight Pulse duration rescaled from 11 to 9/10/11/12
Enigma: Midnight Pulse cooldown rescaled from 35 to 50/45/40/35
Enigma: Midnight Pulse mana cost rescaled from 95/110/125/140 to 75/95/115/135
Enigma: Level 15 Talent increased from +120 Gold/Min to +150
Enigma: Level 20 Talent increased from +400 Health to +500 Health
Enigma: Level 25 Talent increased from +4 Malefice Instance to +5
Juggernaut, Shadow Shaman, and Huskar are always strong, it is just a matter of line up and execution.
The hero that gives us surprise is Bristleback, he is doomed since the introduction of Silver Edge. He is also heavily countered by the break effect added to Viper’s Nethertoxin. But the buff in 7.17 makes wonder, with the extra armour reduction, he can snowball harder to get over the timing of lacking tanky/utility items but the Silver Edge on enemy carry is already online. I think a team like Secret will try him out more in the group stages of TI.
7.17
Bristleback: Viscous Nasal Goo now has a -2 base armour reduction.
Lastly, we are happy to see our favoured Space Cow coming back to the pro scene. Spirit Breaker have now exceeded his traditional position 4 and is becoming a viable position 3 offlaner. Due to the increase of stun time on Greater Bash, and able to buy utility items such as Heart of Tarrasque, he can easily create chaos along the enemy’s backline in team fights, similar to Pangolier and Night Stalker. Furthermore, it goes through BKB!
7.17
Spirit Breaker: Greater Bash disable duration increased from 1/1.2/1.4/1.6 to 1.2/1.4/1.6/1.8.
Spirit Breaker: Nether Strike damage reduced from 150/250/350 to 150/200/250.
Spirit Breaker: Level 10 Talent increased from +400 Night Vision to +600.
Highest Pick Rate Increase
The rise of Magnus is most likely due to the buffs in 7.17, especially on the Shockwave damage, it greatly increased his laning presence on last hitting and harassing. With a decent laning phase, Magnus can be a great initiator, and with the help of Empower, he can make many carry heroes snowball hard. One of the best examples is the Magnus — Ember Spirit combo done by OG.
7.17
Magnus: Base strength increased by 1.
Magnus: Shockwave damage increased from 75/150/225/300 to 90/160/230/300.
Magnus: Skewer slow increased from 2.5/2.75/3/3.25 to 3.25.
Another substantial rise of presence is Oracle, after multiple versions of buff, Oracle has finally hit back into the pro scene. The most important reason is that he is one of the very few heroes that can provide consistent purge from level 1, which is a hard counter to the highest pick rate hero Windranger. With the buff in 7.17, Fortune’s End is not disjointable too, so the Windrun invisible talent and blink dagger will not save Windranger from the purge and root. With more buff in 7.18, Oracle is going to be one of the best support heroes, sustaining carries in the laning phase and countering lots of heroes equipped with escape mechanisms like Queen of Pain, Anti Mage, Dark Seer, and even Storm Spirit and Ember Spirit if they failed to dodge it!
7.17
Oracle: Fortune’s End is no longer disjointable.
Oracle: Level 15 Talent increased from +90 Gold/Min to +120.
7.18
Oracle Intelligence growth increased from 3.2 to 3.5
Highest Pick Rate Decrease
Gyrocopter is basically dead after the removal of Flak Cannon talent in 7.17.
7.17
Gyrocopter: Level 15 Talent changed from +3 Flak Cannon Attacks to +0.5s Homing Missile Stun Duration.
Gyrocopter: Level 20 Talent reduced from +45 Movement Speed to +40.
Death Prophet is still maintaining good win rate, but with the nerfs on her survivability and the rise of burst heroes, she has a problem staying alive to unleash her constant damage. And with the nerfs on Aeon Disk, we believe that she has to be paired with support heroes with a saving ability like Oracle/Winter Wyvern.
7.18
Aeon Disk cooldown increased from 90 to 115
Thanks for reading.
